What if the US never annexed Hawaii?

Hawaii is a group of volcanic islands in the central pacific. It's known for its pineapples, beaches, and nice weather. Hawaii is an American state. But what if wasn't? What would happen if the US never annexed Hawaii. Read on to find out!

Chapter One: Introduction

Context

Hawaii actally use to be an independent country. Hawaii was originally settled by Polynesians. The history of these early peoples is mostly unknown as they lacked a writing system. Recorded history began with Hawaii's first contact with the outside world in 1778, when British explorer James Cook made contact with the island. Shortly after the British arrived, King Kamehameha I conquered all of the islands and united Hawaii into a single kingdom for himself and his descendants. During the reign of monarchy, Europeans bought a bunch of land in Hawaii to set up sugar plantations and imported a large number of East Asian slaves to work on the plantations. Because of this, Hawaii became politically dominated by a white land owning elite. Eventually the monarchy was overthrown by the Hawaiian League in an American backed coup. With a pro-American government installed, America annexed Hawaii as its own territory.

What would happen to Hawaii?

In this alternate timeline, a crises would happen where the Imperial Japanese empire would try plan to invade and seize Hawaii. Since Hawaii had a lot of ethnically Japanese slaves, the Japanese empire would see it as their duty to invade Hawaii to free their fellow Japanese. This would trigger a reaction from Britain. Britain wouldn't want Japan to get a strategic position in the middle of the pacific, so Britain would want to annex Hawaii. This wouldn't be difficult since the Hawaii at the time was a wannabe British colony. The Hawaiian monarchy said it was a British protectorate while in actuality the British empire never claimed Hawaii. Hawaii would enthusiastically join the British in this case.

Chapter Two: The Philippine-American War

In this alternate world, the Philippine-American War has a different outcome. Continue reading to find out what happens.

What was the Philippine-American War?

The Philippine-American war occurred between 1899 and 1902. The United States had just gone to war with Spain in the Spanish-American war. America claimed it was liberating Spain's colonies from colonial rule. The Philippines was a Spanish colony, and America had claimed it was liberating the Philippines from Spanish occupation and promised the Philippines that it could be independent. However, America annexed the Philippines against its wishes, contradicting the promise to let them be independent. This led to an Philippine uprising against the American occupation. The uprising was eventually crushed and the Philippines remained an American territory till after World War Two, when the United States granted Philippines independence.

What would happen to the Philippines?

In this alternate timeline, the Philippine rebels win the Philippine-American war. Hawaii was an essential part of the American supply lines that helped the United States defeat the rebels. Without Hawaii as a key supply base, America would only be able to supply a small number of troops which would be driven out by the rebels. The Philippines would gain its independence. Unfortunately, their independence wouldn't last long because Japan would soon invade and conquer the Philippines. Japan would be much closer so they wouldn't have the supply issues that the Americans had. With Philippine defenses being disorganized and weak, Japan would conquer and hold the Philippines. America would likely not defend or come to the aid of the Philippines as they'd be too bitter from getting humiliated in the war of independence.

Chapter Three: WW2

The United States got into the second world war with the attack on Pearl Harbor. Pearl Harbor is in Hawaii, so you might be wondering how WW2 would turn out. Read on to learn about this exciting alternative version of WW2!

A Pacific war without America?

The Pacific theater in World War Two was won by America, Britain, and Australia who teamed up to defeat the Japanese empire, one of the Axis powers. In this world, Japan wouldn't feel a need to force America's hand by bombing pearl harbor, meaning that the United States wouldn't be involved in the Pacific war, leaving Australia and Britain to fight it alone. To understand the rest of this chapter, please read the next paragraph for a refresher on the Pacific War as you will have a hard time following along the rest of the chapter if you don't.

A brief refresher

Now I know you came here for alternate history and not real history but you'll need this recap to follow along the rest of the scenario. Don't worry I'll keep it quick! So Japan was in the process of invading China, and after the Nanking massacre the United States and bunch of other countries put an embargo on oil to Japan. Japan really needed that oil in their war against China, so they planned on invading the East Indies (Indonesia) to get a bunch of oil for their war effort. The fall of Western Europe to the Germans in 1940 created a perfect opportunity for Japan to swoop in and seize the East Indies. The problem was that America threatened war if Japan ever invaded, so the Japanese attack was called off. Eventually, Japan really needed that oil so the Japanese figured that since they are going to go to war against America anyway, they might as well bomb the US Pacific fleet in pearl harbor to make it so that America couldn't fight them. When pearl harbor was bombed however, the attackers forgot to attack the ship yards and fuel storage tanks so America was able to rebuild the Pacific fleet and then used it to defeat the Japanese.

The war that came early

In this timeline, World War Two in the pacific starts in 1940 instead of 1941. In this world, without Hawaii America wouldn't be able to supply a pacific war so Japan wouldn't see America as a threat and would invade the East Indies in 1940. This would start a war with the British and Australians.

Side note: I know that "The War that came Early" is a book series by Harry Turtledove. It's an alternate history story where WW2 starts with the invasion of Czechoslovakia. You should totally check it out and read it, it's awesome and a good read!

The Battle of the Coral Sea

In our timeline, the Battle of the Coral Sea had the American, Australian, and British fleets combine to face a Japanese fleet off of the east coast of Australia. In our world this battle was a stalemate, but in this alternative timeline, without the American forces the allies would be crushed and Japan would seize control over the eastern waters off of the coast of Australia. Japan would blockade the Australian's population centers on the east coast and Australia would be forced to sign an Armistice. The peace treaty wouldn't be too harsh at all. Japan would let Australia be independent and all Australia would have to do is stop fighting and recognize Japan's conquest.

The Indian Ocean Empire?

You heard that right. The Japanese had a plan during WW2 to take control of the Indian Ocean by invading the islands of Sri Lanka, Madagascar, and Socotra. In our timeline, Japan ended up cancelling their plans for their Indian Ocean empire because they needed the troops and ships for their war against the Allies, but without America or Australia, and Britain seriously weakened and tied down in the war against Germany, Japan would be able to conquer these 3 islands and expand their empire to the Indian Ocean.

Japan's Empire

The fate of India

After conquering the Indian ocean, Japan would go through with their plan to invade India. At this time, India was a British colony. With Japan in control of the India ocean, Britain would not be able to send any reinforcements to India. Instead, India would put together their own Indian Army. This invasion will fail and the Indians would beat back the Japanese. India, having its own army and wanting to get independence, would declare independence. With India gaining independence on its own terms, the partition of India never happens which means that neither Pakistan nor Bangladesh exist. India then signs a peace treaty with Japan, where Japan would recognize Indian independence and protect them from British retaliation.

The Japanese defeat the British

Without Australia or America, the remaining British forces will be under supplied and would be easily defeated by the Japanese, giving Japan control over the Pacific.

The fall of China

In this timeline, Japan secures control over the oil in the east indies and has defeated or made peace with all other enemies in the region. The Japanese then launch a full scale offensive against China and China collapses. The Japanese would seize the eastern half of China with the bulk of the population but wouldn't be able to conquer the western half. Before the Japanese invaded China in 1937, China was in the middle of a civil war between the Kuomintang and the Communists. The two sides signed a truce and formed a United Front to combat the Japanese. The United Front wouldn't have the resources to conquer Eastern China so without the threat of the Japanese the Communist and Kuomintang would turn on each other. The USSR had a bunch of troops in West China so they would help the Communist win. The Japanese and communist would be stuck fighting each other in the inhospitable terrain of central China so both parties would get sick of fighting each other and sue for peace. This would lead to Japan controlling the eastern half of China while the Communist control the western half of China.

Another event that would not happen is the Sino-Soviet split. The Sino-Soviet split had Communist China fallout with the Soviet Union. But in this timeline the Communist China never breaks off relations with the USSR since the USSR has a bunch of troops stationed in the Western half of China.

A new Japan

Japan had plans to ethnically cleanse China. They would do this by first starting a brutal campaign of burning down villages to force the Chinese into a mass migration to the Communist controlled Western China. Japan would then start colonizing the now empty Chinese lands. Tens of millions of Japanese people would settle in China. This "New Japan" in would initially be a lightly populated developing nation. In just a few generations, however, the tens of millions of Japanese inhabitants will grow to nearly a billion because people in developing countries 8 or 9 kids! Eventually this "New Japan" in eastern China will become economically developed and will be the most important part of the Japanese empire with all of its resources and Japan would move their capital there.

The war in Europe

This timeline does not affect the war in Europe. Shortly after pearl harbor Hitler declared war on the United States. Hitler mainly declared war on the United States because of his ego. America was aiding the British in their fight against the Germans and Hitler didn't like that and wanted to punish America. Hitler famously underestimated America calling them a "nation of razor makers" so even without a Japanese attack Pearl Harbor Hitler would still declare war on the United States. This would bring America into the war in Europe but not in the war of the Pacific.

Chapter Four: The cold war

With Japan as a world power, you may be wondering how this would effect the cold war. Keep reading to find out!

A multi-polar struggle

Initially, there would be a lot of communist rebellions within the Japanese Empire supported by the Soviet Union. The Soviet Union would be afraid of a war with Japan where Japan would invade the far east. This would put the Soviet Union and Japan on opposite sides of the cold war. The US, Britain, and France would've had to choose between the USSR or Japan to fight against during the cold war. I think that they would choose to fight against the USSR because the USSR was communist and would pose the biggest threat to the business interest of the US, France, and Britain. This would mean the Japan would enter into an uneasy alliance with the west. This would mean recognizing Japan's conquests and Britain signing a peace treaty with Japan. The Cold would be Japan and the Western Allies competing USSR for world dominance.

Thanks for reading!